2012 gone – bring on 2013 9

2012 is behind us so it is time to think about what to expect in 2013. On occasions like this, it’s best to let one’s mind wander and not try to be terribly structured.

2012 is a year Uganda’s Speaker of Parliament, Rebecca Kadaga, will not look back on with unbridled pleasure. When she rose to the post of Speaker in 2011, Kadaga mounted and rode a wave of public disgruntlement against Yoweri Museveni’s tired, uncaring, thieving, bungling administration, and impressed even die-hard skeptics, such as yours truly, with her crusading zeal to put “country first.” Openly warring with Museveni’s Squealer-like puppet, Prime Minister Amama Mbabazi, Kadaga emboldened the ruling NRM caucus in Parliament and hitherto docile parliamentarians started asking pointed questions about their own government’s wanton corruption, fecklessness,  lack of new ideas and drift.

Kadaga was repelled by Mbabazi

Rebecca Kadaga was repelled by Amama Mbabazi

Alas, Kadaga then came a-cropper when she was lured into consorting with convicted felons over the Bahati [Nazi]Anti-Gay Bill. She promised the bill to Martin Ssempa who had just been convicted of fabricating sodomy evidence against a rival pastor – for Christmas – and then failed to deliver it. Thanks to events running away from Kadaga, time run out on the Bahati [Nazi) Bill in 2012, not least because the President, who we all know is against the bill, chose to use up an entire afternoon the bill could have been debated to indulge in ... gossip. Kadaga thus lost her last opportunity in 2012 to deliver her [Nazi] Christmas gift to Martin Ssempa and with it went her credibility where political maneuvering is concerned.

Museveni: took up precious Parliamentary time in December to "gossip"

Museveni: took up precious Parliamentary time in December to “gossip”

Kadaga got a political bloody nose in 2012, which the death of her octogenarian father did not help. She will come back again in 2013, and you can expect her to continue making noises about this and that. She has, however, already showed that she is prone to moving her political chess pieces without a lot of thought and will, going forward, struggle to maintain her moral high ground given her failure to deliver on what should have been an easy bill to pass in 2012. She of course, should be advised to steer her office clear of political controversy as well as be more discreet about her political ambitions, but only time will tell whether she is willing to play a more subtle form of politics.

Frank Mugisha & Kasha Nabagesera

The faces of gay Uganda: Frank Mugisha & Kasha Nabagesera

2012 has been a spectacularly successful year for Ugandan gay rights activists, thanks largely to events that have been driven by others. To the activists’ direct credit, 2012 saw Uganda’s first ever gay pride march in Entebbe which was eventually broken up by the police. Yours truly doesn’t believe in such things as pride marches because they go against his sensibilities. But it is not lost on him that parades serve a useful ‘public awareness’ purpose especially when activism is faced with boorish, foolish, intemperate, obtuse and tactless foes such as Uganda’s current Minister of Ethics and Integrity, defrocked Catholic priest Simon Lokodo.

Lokodo should really have known to leave activists well alone when they met in hotels and public gardens because, of course, they were doing no harm even if they didn’t have the right to assemble which they did. But, no, he kept on charging in there, likely tipped off by someone inside the gay camp on at least one occasion,  like a bull in a China store which of course played right into the gay advocates’ hands. Still, even after conferences were disrupted and a couple of gay-themed plays were stymied, one got the feeling that the gay debate in Uganda had stalled, that the public weren’t interested in it. The activists’ tactics on the ground weren’t really producing the kind of impact they wanted.

A lot of Ugandans on Facebook clearly need an education

A lot of Ugandans on Facebook clearly need an education

All that changed of course when John Baird confronted Rebecca Kadaga in Quebec in late October. The furor that incident unleashed reverberated around the world, thanks to Kadaga’s intemperate, impolitic and, dare one say it, totally over-the-top response when she returned home.

So, due to foreign intervention, the last three months of 2012 have generated some of the most heated debates around homosexuality Uganda has ever witnessed – on local radio, in the papers, and most especially on social media in cyberspace. Baird’s harangue thus proved to be a godsend to the limping gay cause in Uganda in ways he likely didn’t expect.

Ruled for gay rights: Justice Stella Arach Amoko

Ruled for gay rights: Justice Stella Arach Amoko

Where to next? The Bahati bill remains in Parliament and will be passed by Parliament if it is debated regardless of what local activists and our friends abroad do. So, the way forward is to find a way for the bill not to be debated on the floor of Parliament or to prepare for a constitutional challenge if it is passed.

My own feeling is that the bill should be debated and passed so that it can be challenged in the courts. This would serve to take it out of the political arena and, hopefully, draw a line under the [mostly cynical] jockeying by both friends and detractors which has helped shape public debate, yes, but which has also left the core issues unresolved.

A lot of well-schooled Ugandans remain astonishingly illiterate on the homosexuality issue and so need an education. Raising the debate to a more intellectual, highbrow, legal, level will give a lot of our brothers and sisters who have gone to school but remain ignorant a different, less hysterical and/or hackneyed perspective.

The other reason this issue needs to go to court is precedent;  the gay side in Uganda has never lost a legal ruling in the three or four times gay activists have taken our enemies to court in the recent past. With such great odds, I would bet my last cent that the Bahati Bill would be ruled unconstitutional in less time than it takes to say “bigoted.” But first it has to be passed for the courts to consider any challenges.

Is it risque parades we are after?

Is  flaunting it at parades what we are after?

The activists on the ground should also continue to expect questions about what exactly they want to achieve. I have asked the questions and continue to hear them being asked by others in more muted tones.

Are they looking for acceptance in Uganda? If so, what form should it take? Is it about gay marriage? Every sinew in my body tells me it shouldn’t be and I haven’t heard any Ugandan activist argue that marriage is what it’s about so we can dismiss that line of thought. Or can we?

Is it about gay men and women being allowed to love each other freely (in private) in Uganda? What about those, like yours truly, who feel we are already doing that in the broad context of the inhibited sexual sensibilities in Uganda?

Is it about putting it out there, on the airwaves, in public parks, in bars and on the streets as one sees in San Fransisco’s Castro District? If so, how do we hope to cut and paste that model into a country like Uganda where heterosexuals frown upon flaunting their own relationships?

Or is it about attaining equal access to social services such as HIV/Aids treatment  and other health and wellness programs which heterosexuals already take for granted?

Is it about lifting the confidence of gay men and women all over the country to believe in themselves enough to pool together to set up gay venues (bars, clubs etc) that they call their own?

In other words, with and without help from our friends abroad, for whom and for what are we making all this noise in the press, in conferences around the world, in dramatic stage productions, on podiums accepting accolades, in television debates with a lunatic Martin Ssempa?

If the struggle is not really about those who front it, because most struggles are usually larger than those who front them, do those we assume to be representing really know what it is we are trying to do for them, and have they bought into the agenda we espouse? How have we ensured that they are on board with what we are trying to achieve?

If we were to take a poll of gay Ugandans today, how confident are we that they would all be able to say in one sentence what gay activism in Uganda is about?

What will the matrix of success following all this gay activism in Uganda be? What will need to happen  (and to whom) in order for us to say that the gay struggle in Uganda has succeeded?

When I speak to gay men and women from all walks of life in Uganda, I get the impression that those are the broad questions whose answers they still want clearly articulated.

The communication chasm between leaders and led still needs to be bridged.

Still.

The case for Kadaga 2016 4

Provocative profile: Rebecca Kadaga

Fact: Yoweri Museveni’s 26-year-old government is so spent, so riddled with corruption, so obviously incapable of delivering the most basic services to the masses, so irretrievably dysfunctional that only a change at the helm will bring about any change.

Fact: Unless the challenger to Museveni’s rule comes from within the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM), no one from the opposition parties can  unseat Yoweri Museveni because the odds are stacked too high against them even if they had a coherent message.

Fact: The people of Uganda are so tired of their government but are wary of throwing it out because the opposition, due to factors best discussed on another occasion, offers little in the way of viable alternatives.

So, what’s the solution then?

A hitherto untainted but credible candidate from within the ruling National Resistance Movement itself.

That’s where Rebecca Kadaga comes in.

Highly educated and feisty, Speaker of the House Kadaga has found the perfect platform to run for the highest office in the land. She was given the nod by the current Museveni administration in the hope that it would be business as usual, with Parliament merely rubber-stamping everything Museveni sent them. Museveni immediately regretted having offered his support. Kadaga and Museveni’s Prime Minister, Amama Mbabazi, have clashed openly and so ferociously that the president has had to intervene to separate them a couple of times.

Populist: Kadaga knows how to play to the gallery (here with Olympic gold medal winner, Kiprotich)

She has already shown that as Speaker of the 9th Parliament she isn’t the fawning poodle her predecessor was. At this point, she is the most visible and outspoken NRM personality there is after Museveni so she has a lot going for her. All she needs now is to deliver a really significant parliamentary blow to Museveni and she will really ride high.

She may have been given such an opportunity by the clash she had with Canada’s Foreign Minister, John Baird, and we might as well see Kadaga pushing for and achieving the passage of the anti-gay bill that had lain dormant until John Baird helped revive its embers.

Once the NRM get used to it that Museveni is vulnerable, Kadaga’s candidature will begin to look really credible. Then you will see the most almighty battle to try to get rid of her – which should lend her even more credibility. Remember Museveni and his crony, Mbabazi, have tried twice already to pull her down a peg and both efforts backfired when she their machinations became public  and Kadaga won the public’s sympathy. She is quite astute in the way she denies this and that and then asks pointed questions in forums where she will be quoted liberally.

Demonstrably incompetent – Museveni’s crony, Amama Mbabazi

She has locked horns with Museveni over how much say Parliament should have in the passing of the budget. She has already drawn her line in the sand and we are now waiting to see if Museveni will blink.

Only the other week Kadaga held up the swearing-in of a new cabinet because one of the nominated ministers, IdahNantaba, had questionable morals. Rumors abounded that Nantaba was Museveni’s mistress. Kadaga walked away from the skirmish and Museveni got his woman, but with Parliamentary procedures circumvented. The point had been made, however, and no one will now look at Nantaba as anything other than another Museveni skirt.

The evidence is in all the papers that the man some had touted as a possible successor to Museveni, Amama Mbabazi, can’t run a bank, or his own ministry where more than $60 million of donor money was embezzled on his watch. So how can he run a country? He is damaged goods and he now serves one purpose – to parrot whatever Museveni orders him to. Vice President Edward Ssekandi is a laughing-stock all over the country because it is widely accepted that he needed help to steal his parliamentary election in February 2011 (he couldn’t even pull it off on his own). Even if he was presentable enough, Ssekandi is an old style, crooked-deals-in-a-smoky-room administrator who has no scruples or principles as his unsuccessful interference in KCCA’s demolition of an illegal structure in Kampala showed.

Yes, yes. Museveni’s son, Muhoozi is being touted as a possible shoo-in. So is his Museveni’s wife, Janet. While those two can’t be written off given Uganda’s putrid dish politics, they lack the political credibility, and so would have to be imposed. It’s inconceivable that Muhoozi, a totally unknown quantity whose meteoric rise through the military ranks can only have been engineered by his father, could go out on the hustings, campaign for office and win.

Janet Museveni believes that prayers will solve all Uganda’s problems – something that is patently ridiculous, and which most Ugandans understand to be so. She thus also lacks credibility. Besides, she has been at her husband’s side over the 26 years the country has meandered from one corruption scandal to the other, 26 years that have not seen  a single public school, hospital, road built or repaired to an acceptable standard. How come the prayers she so believes in haven’t worked?

Kadaga hangs with the high and low: with Parliamentarians and village women (second R)

On almost every issue that gets a politician elected in Uganda, Kadaga is saying what the majority want to hear. Her political antennae are serving her very well indeed. Yes, even on the LBGTI issue which is the latest political hot potato Kadaga has had to deal with, she has passed the test with aplomb. The activist LGBTI side will not like how she has reacted but she deftly played the political card Canada’s John Baird handed her. She wouldn’t have been a politician worth her salt had she reacted any other way. Baird’s boo-boo will hopefully be a salient lesson to the human rights agitators out there who tend to forget that they are in a war that must always take into account the political realities of the recipient countries.

Kadaga’s chances for 2016 look very bright indeed and, you know what, whether or not the Bahati Nazi anti-gay bill passes on her watch, this gay man likes her … a lot.